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Are We Getting Better Yet?

How is the worldwide pandemic progressing?

"I hate you COVID" Credit: Matthew Roth.

Donald J. Wheeler
Tue, 06/30/2020 - 12:03
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All articles in this series
Are We Getting Better Yet?
Some Perspective on the Covid Pandemic
Some Benchmarks for the Fall Covid-19 Experiment
The Progression of Covid Within the United States
The Road to One Million
Tracking Covid-19
Tracking Covid-19: Update
Waiting for the Covid-19 Peak
Body

The daily Covid-19 pandemic values tell us how things have changed from yesterday, and give us the current totals, but they are difficult to understand simply because they are only a small piece of the puzzle. This article will present a global perspective on the pandemic and show where the United States stands in relation to the rest of the world at the end of the third week in June.

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Here we will consider 27 countries that are home to 5 billion people (67% of the world's population). According to the European CDC database, which is the source for all of the data reported here, these 27 countries had more than 75 percent of the world’s confirmed Covid-19 cases and 86 percent of the Covid deaths as of June 20, 2020. So they should provide a reasonable perspective on the worldwide pandemic. Figure 1 lists these countries by region and gives the relevant Covid-19 counts and rates as of June 20, 2020.


Figure 1: Countries used for global summary

 …

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Comments

Submitted by Michel Baudin on Tue, 06/30/2020 - 12:25

Variability in data quality by country

While it doesn't invalidate the main points of the article, we should be wary of comparing countries that produce trustworthy data, like Japan, Germany, Italy, Spain, Korea, or France, with countries that don't. The reasons national stats from a country can be unreliable include the lack of technical means to collect the data or the absence of a free press. 

Even in the US, inaccuracies creep up when the numbers have political or economic consequences. It is well known that Americans are undercounted because politicians won't allow the use of advanced statistics to detect and correct known undercounts. I don't think we know how many people actually live in China. In another country I visited long ago, an attempted census in a province had yielded a count "between 200,000 and 1,200,000." Some parents had declared more children than they had in hope of getting government subsidies, while others had declared fewer, to avoid taxation. The census takers had no idea how many of each there were. 

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