Data Torturing in the Baseball World, Part 1

Explaining anything as special cause

In honor of baseball season, I’m going to apply some simple statistical thinking to my favorite sport in a two-part series today and tomorrow. I want anyone to be able to enjoy this, so I’ll mark any technical statistics as optional reading. For those of you interested only in the interpretations, I'll offer the “bottom line” conclusions, many of which I think will surprise you.

Maybe you can’t do the math and don’t even want to, but you should at least realize the importance of understanding these types of analyses and have access to someone who can do them. In many similar daily situations you encounter, anything else would be data insanity.

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Comments

Thanks for your insights

Mr. Balestracci,

As a "stat geek", I have baseball to thank for my interest in statisical analysis. I also subscribed to SABR for a time and still keep up with them. I dislike listening to baseball broadcasters, former MLB players and managers, and so-called analysts who spout useless trivia to "bolster" their cases but who don't know the meaning of "statistical significance", as in your example.

In fact, I'd love to see you present your insights on the "MLB Network". Think about it.

Best wishes.