Phil used to be a very senior financial executive. When asked for a number, he would typically provide with a rough ballpark answer, such as, “It’s about 5 percent.” He’d then be peppered with questions about how he had arrived at that figure.

After a while, he got tired of this questioning and started to bring a stack of financials with him to every meeting. From then on, instead of providing an approximate but effectively accurate answer, he would instead turn to his printout, thumb through the pages, and then randomly point to a specific line and answer by saying “It is 4.96 percent.” The questions stopped. The oracle had spoken.

Phil’s experience is not unique. Humans tend to dislike uncertainty. For example, many people are happy to play roulette, despite its inherent risk and expectation of loss, but only a few are willing to participate in a wager if the odds are not clearly defined, even if they can choose their side of the gamble.

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