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Outcome Bias and the Winter Olympics

Winners don’t always win

Mike Richman
Thu, 02/22/2018 - 12:03
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The XXIII Olympic Winter Games are wrapping up this weekend (Feb. 25, 2018) in PyeongChang, South Korea. During the past two weeks, thousands of athletes competed on mountains, rinks, and tracks; the best of the best emerged with precious medals that they will cherish for the rest of their lives.

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When you look at the sheer athleticism of Olympic competitors, it’s clear that these are people who have devoted themselves to wringing the maximum levels of efficiency out of their bodies. (Except for curlers... I’m not sure exactly how they qualify as “athletes” any more than bowlers, dart players, beer pongers, or those who shoot pool, but that’s a discussion for another column.)

In any event, these fleeting moments of excellence in front of the world represent the culmination of many years of dedicated training. But the physical preparation is only part of it. The mental side—involving things like visualization, focus, intensity, dedication, and the desire for continuous improvement—is at least as important in the infinitesimal differences between those who win and those who don’t.

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Submitted by Alan Metzel on Thu, 02/22/2018 - 14:53

Outcome bias

Oh so true... I suspect she may have gone into the run with a "Hey, what the hell, if I lose, I lose" attitude.  It actually removes a lot of the pressure in the crunch. But, on the other hand, the metrology geek in me wonders, "What is the accuracy, repeatability, and uncertainty in the timing system?"

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