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It Was the Best of Times; It Was the End of Times

You, too, can predict the end of the world

Greg Fox
Wed, 10/17/2012 - 16:55
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Body

I have been riding my bike to work lately instead of taking my car. I figured I could use the exercise. I figured it would be good for my health. I figured it might help stave off global warming. I figured wrong.

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I’ve noticed lately that the sky seems to get darker a little earlier every day. I asked my wife if she had noticed the same thing, and she said, “When are you going to take out that garbage like I asked?” I wasn’t sure I could tackle her garbage question, but I was reasonably confident that with the help of Minitab Statistical Software, I could get to the bottom of this darkness thing.

Turns out, darkness is closely related to the setting of the sun. It’s been studied extensively, and scientists have proven that when the sun goes down, it gets darker. I found a website called timeanddate.com where I could get a whole month’s worth of sunrise and sunset data in one table. Using those data, I created a worksheet like the following. (If you want to know how I imported the data and created my graphs, check out the section at the bottom of this post titled, “How I imported the data and created my graphs.”)

 …

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Comments

Submitted by umberto mario tunesi on Mon, 10/22/2012 - 09:49

When will Statistics end?

Greg, you're a very nice guy, I like what and the way you write. But why don't you simply accept facts, events? If you have read me, you should know I am quite cold at Statisticians' view of the World. And, Prediction is quite a heavy word: I recently commented Miriam Boudreaux's colum on corrective action. I feel we quality pros should better follow a lean rather than a six sigma path. Thank you; and - remember - the End of the World was a years 60's hit of the greek rock band Aphrodite's Child. Thank you again. 

  • Reply

Submitted by Greg Fox on Tue, 10/23/2012 - 15:02

In reply to When will Statistics end? by umberto mario tunesi

Mythic bands

Thanks for the comment, Umberto. I am very glad you enjoyed the post. And I do strive to be lean. And thank you and Dave Y for broadening my musical horizons. Through the magic of the interwebs, I was able to check out Aphrodite's Child. I am impressed. Please keep me abreast of any upcoming tour dates. By the way, my editor said I should mention the band "Magma" and that would earn me some "Prog cred". I wonder if prog cred can be echanged for goods and services in the futuristic dystopia to come?
  • Reply

Submitted by jwjackson on Mon, 10/22/2012 - 10:04

Scary, but that ain't the worst of it!

Greg, thank you for the timely heads-up on the impending end of sunshine. I sold all my solar stocks and was on my way to Walmart to load up on wind-up flashlights when I became concerned about another disturbing trend here where I live - the gradual decline in average temperature over the last few weeks. Using your model as inspiration, my calculations show that we will freeze to death before we run out of light. This means we need a solution that address both problems. Consider this your cue to head to Yankee Candle before the shelves are empty.

Apocalyptically yours,

Jeff

  • Reply

Submitted by Greg Fox on Tue, 10/23/2012 - 14:43

In reply to Scary, but that ain't the worst of it! by jwjackson

Freezing in the dark

Thanks Jeff. Maybe there is something to this Mayan calendar thing after all ....
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Submitted by Dave Y on Mon, 10/22/2012 - 10:04

Umberto - I think I have that

Umberto - I think I have that album.  Vangelis was the star of that band wasn't he?  Before he made it as a solo artist.

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Submitted by dvanputten on Mon, 10/22/2012 - 11:39

Why only data from Oct. 2012?

Hello Greg:

Why did you only plot data from October 2012 and not plot all of the available data to look for patterns? Drawing a conclusion from one month of data out of a millennium of data doesn't seem very statistically sound. 

Based on the last month of data, Apple stock will be worthless in less than 7 months. 

Are you teaching statisical skills or rhetoric?

Thank you, Dirk

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Submitted by dvanputten on Mon, 10/22/2012 - 18:09

In reply to Why only data from Oct. 2012? by dvanputten

I am a knucklehead

Hello Greg:

I totally missed the joke of the entire artilce. What a knucklehead I am. Please disregard my earlier comment and I will view this as a learning opportunity for me. I gotta get with it and relax a little more. My apologoes to you Greg and the Quality Digest Readers.

Thank you, Dirk

  • Reply

Submitted by Greg Fox on Tue, 10/23/2012 - 09:08

In reply to I am a knucklehead by dvanputten

Good company

No worries, Dirk. As far as not getting my humor, let me assure you that you are in very good company. The list of notables includes my wife, my sons, my boss, my dog, numerous Nobel Laureates (including Al Gore) and countless others I won't mention. However, I do wish you had not said "Apple stock will be worthless in less than 7 months". That quote has been picked up by disreputable news outlets and Apple stock has been in free-fall ever since. That's taking a big bite out of my 401K. But, then I guess it doesn't really matter anyway :) Cheers! Greg
  • Reply

Submitted by Quality Digest on Tue, 10/23/2012 - 09:21

In reply to I am a knucklehead by dvanputten

I'm seriously impressed

Dvanputten. This is why I like quality professionals like yourself. A willingness to look at the data (situation, story, whatever) recognize when you have interpreted incorrectly and then say "Oops. My bad."

Hmmm... maybe we should replace all politicians with QA people...

  • Reply

Submitted by SDemyan on Mon, 10/22/2012 - 11:59

Numbers In/Numbers Out

Great use of a computer! A+...this illustrates the importance of understanding influencing factors, processes, and sampling methods. Perhaps after a full year of riding and recording the data, a more realiable prediction/model may emerge. (Your legs may tire after that, but at least there would be 365/734380 sample.) After all we are in 2012 Julian years....if we would like to use Julius C. as the definition of the population we wish to study....sorry I don't know any Mayans.

  • Reply

Submitted by Greg Fox on Tue, 10/23/2012 - 08:55

In reply to Numbers In/Numbers Out by SDemyan

Still wriding

Thanks a lot SDemyan. It's funny because "great use a computer" is exactly what my boss said when I showed him what I had been working on. Though I think I detected a hint of sarcasm in his voice. I'm going to share your comments with him to persuade him that I still deserve to draw a paycheck, at least through July anyway :) Cheers, Greg.
  • Reply

Submitted by KeithN on Mon, 10/22/2012 - 12:52

What is the uncertainty?

As with any statistical evaluation, I need to know the uncertainty associated with your end-of-sunshine date. I would hate to schedule my candle delivery only to find out the end of sunshine happened a day or two earlier.

  • Reply

Submitted by Greg Fox on Tue, 10/23/2012 - 08:46

In reply to What is the uncertainty? by KeithN

Just-in-time candle delivery

Hi Keith, I have been told there may be some problems with my analysis, so I will have to spend some time on it and get back to you. We may have longer than I initially thought. Nonetheless, I would order my candles early because you are going to want to beat the rush. Cheers, Greg
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