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Analyzing Major League Baseball’s ‘Tommy John’ Surgeries

Data insights and trends from 2000–2024

Photo by Jose Francisco Morales on Unsplash

Mark Graban
Wed, 05/15/2024 - 12:03
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I’ve seen a rash of articles about major league baseball pitchers who are now out for the season because they’ve hurt their elbow and need “Tommy John” surgery. This includes some big names, such as 2020 Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Guardians.

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My favorite player, Shohei Ohtani, isn’t pitching this season after his second Tommy John surgery (thankfully, he can still play as the designated hitter).

One headline states, “MLB pitching injuries 2024: Key culprits in baseball’s elbow epidemic.”

 …

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Comments

Submitted by Jonathon Andell (not verified) on Wed, 05/15/2024 - 12:01

No "Shift" in Velocity

I totally agree that control charts are the best way to display and understand process data. (Interesting that Wheeler used control chart format to compare the home run hitting of Mantle and Maris in his book "Understanding Variation")

And I like constructing the final chart to show some manner of shift around 2012. I still don't feel like I understand what it was that changed then, but it seems clear that we went from one stable range of performance, to another stable range.

The display of velocity vs. year does not appear to help, given that it's a steady-ish trend with 2012 smack in the middle of it.

But I hope Dr. Wheeler will appreciate the use of "process behavior" charts.

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