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Sales Forecasts: Hocus-Pocus with a Dollar Sign

Sales processes, for the most part, are inherently unmeasureable

Wed, 01/12/2011 - 05:00
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The emergence of cargo cults on some Pacific Islands after World War II is an amusing and oft-repeated story.

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The relatively simple lifestyles of these islanders were interrupted by Japanese aircraft dropping large supplies of clothing, medicine, canned food, and tents to support the Japanese war effort. Some of these supplies were shared with islanders in exchange for their assistance.

After the war, when planes and their valuable cargoes disappeared, some islanders took to imitating the “rituals” they’d observed the Japanese performing. They carved headphones from wood and wore them while sitting in fabricated control towers. And they waved landing signals while standing on abandoned runways.

I’ve noticed the emergence of a similar cargo-cult behavior in organizations in recent years, particularly those that sell major products and services.

Sales departments have observed a rapid evolution in the performance of their organizations’ operations departments. They’ve seen outputs increase by orders of magnitude. And they’ve seen quality and on-time performance improve by similar degrees.

 …

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