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Warning: Do Not Just Average Predictions

The partial information framework can be used to analyze real-world forecasting data

Ville Satopaa
Mon, 08/21/2017 - 12:01
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At a 1906 livestock show in Plymouth, England, nearly 800 people participated in a contest to guess the weight of a slaughtered ox. The average of these estimates was 1,197 pounds. This is remarkable because the true weight of the ox turned out to be 1,198 pounds. The average was only one pound away from the truth. How could it be so accurate? Perhaps by chance?

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