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Let’s Make a Deal Meets Deal or No Deal

The simplest analysis that offers insight is always the best

Steve Moore
Wed, 03/23/2011 - 06:00
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During the late 1990s, Marilyn vos Savant, holder of the Guinness Book of Records’ highest recorded IQ of 228, received an avalanche of hostile responses, many from Ph.D.s in math and statistics, when she correctly solved the controversial “Monty Hall Problem.” This concerns whether a contestant on Monty Hall’s game show, Let’s Make a Deal, who has chosen one of three doors, should or should not switch doors after Hall has revealed that one of the doors not chosen does not hide the car. Most people intuitively declare that there’s no advantage to switching because the chances are 50/50 between the two remaining doors.

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However, in her “Ask Marilyn” column in Parade Magazine, vos Savant said that there is a two-thirds probability the car is behind the remaining door and a one-third probability the contestant is correct on his initial choice. The contestant should always switch.

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