I don’t like the taste of crow, which is a shame, because I’m about to eat a huge helping of it.

I’m going to tell you how I messed up an analysis. But in the process, I learned some new lessons and was reminded of some older ones I should remember to apply more carefully.

This failure starts in a victory

My mistake originated in the 2015 Triple Crown victory of American Pharoah. I’m no racing enthusiast, but I knew this horse had ended almost four decades of Triple Crown disappointments, and that was exciting. I’d never seen a Triple Crown won before. It hadn’t happened since 1978.

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