(ACSI: Ann Arbor, MI) -- After a surge through the second quarter, aggregate customer satisfaction as measured by the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) stalls. The ACSI loses 0.1 percent for the third quarter, which brings the Index to a score of 76.0 on a 100-point scale. Still, the Index has improved since the depths of the recession and stands 1.3-percent higher than it was a year ago. Despite the slight drop in ACSI, many companies are improving their customer relationships: gainers lead decliners 45 to 39 percent, with 16 percent unchanged.
Because of the relatively sharp increase in customer satisfaction through the second quarter, the ACSI predictive model pointed to a consumer spending increase of 3.25 percent, much higher than most other predictions, but not quite high enough—actual third quarter consumer spending turned out to be 3.35 percent.
“For the short term, it seems unlikely that households will continue spending at that level, not only because customer satisfaction is no longer rising, but also because unemployment is getting worse and so is consumer confidence,” says Claes Fornell, founder of the ACSI and author of The Satisfied Customer: Winners and Losers in the Battle for Buyer Preference (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007). “Some of the spending increase was also due to government programs, such as Cash for Clunkers, that have since expired. Unless something unforeseen happens, it is more likely that consumer spending for the fourth quarter will be below 3 percent and perhaps as low as 2 percent, even though retail sales may well be somewhat higher than last year.”
For the third quarter, the ACSI reports results for the nondurable goods sector, including apparel, athletic shoes, beer, cigarettes, food manufacturing, pet food, personal care and cleaning products, and soft drinks.
Customer satisfaction with food companies is unchanged at 83. Top-performer Heinz (unchanged at 89) leads the industry for 10 consecutive years, with cereal maker Quaker Oats (unchanged at 87), and chocolate makers Hershey (up 2% to 87) and Mars (up 1% to 87) close behind. Buyer satisfaction with Heinz ketchup and the many other food products that the company manufactures ties luxury automakers Lexus and Cadillac for the highest score across all categories covered by ACSI.
Confectionary maker Nestlé also improves (up 2% to 85), boosting satisfaction with manufacturers of sweets overall to an all-time high of 86. “The same thing happened in 2001 in the midst of the previous recession, and also in 2004 when concern over the Iraq war and rising fuel prices appeared to be reflected in higher satisfaction with comfort foods,” says Fornell.
At the other end of the spectrum, ConAgra falls 7 percent to the bottom of the industry, matching the biggest drop ever for any company in the food category and reaching an all-time low of 78. ConAgra raised prices on its popular Banquet frozen dinners line and cut costs in other areas that have had a negative effect on satisfaction.
A new tax increase on cigarettes, from 39 cents a pack to $1.01, has led to a sharp downturn in customer satisfaction, falling 7.7 percent to 72, an all-time low. No company is immune from the effects of the new tax. Philip Morris drops 9 percent, and Reynolds American drops 8 percent, both to 72.
“In the past, a 10-percent price increase in tobacco products contributed to about a 4-percent decline in consumption,” Fornell says. “The ACSI model suggests the most recent tax hike will have a similar effect.”
Customer satisfaction with tobacco products, largely made up of cigarettes, has never quite matched other nondurable products in customer satisfaction. Price has been an issue for a long time, and it also seems that there might be less differentiation than the advertising budgets imply.
Beer drinker satisfaction is at an all-time high, rising 1.2 percent to 84, perhaps following the same pattern as chocolate and sweets. Anheuser-Busch leads the way (up 4% to 85), driven by increased sales of popular low-priced and newer products such as Natural Light, Busch, Bud Light Lime, and Golden Wheat. Parent company InBev has made a number of changes in business strategy during the past year that appear to be paying off.
Results for Miller (up 1% to 83) and Coors (down 2% to 81) brands are mixed. Coors in particular is composed of more higher-priced brands compared with Anheuser-Busch and may be feeling the effects of consumers seeking better value for money.
There is no change in the industry score for personal care and cleaning products, which remains at a record high of 85 for a third straight year. Clorox cleans up by improving 1 percent to 88, tying its all-time high score and marking the thirteenth straight year it has been at least tied for the top spot.
A total of 88 percent of Clorox products are either the No. 1 or No. 2 sellers in their categories. Clorox is followed closely by Unilever (unchanged at 87) with Procter & Gamble and Dial next at 85 (unchanged) and 84 (down 1%), respectively. Colgate-Palmolive drops sharply after a big improvement in 2008, falling this year 5 percent to 83. Colgate appears to have a pattern of rolling out many new products with competitive pricing in one year, only to scale back and increase price the next.
Apparel makes the largest leap in customer satisfaction of all the nondurables industries, rising 2.5 percent to 82. Levi Strauss leads the way, up 6 percent to tie Jones Apparel atop the industry lead at 83. The improvement for Levi Strauss moves the jeans maker all the way from the bottom to the top of the industry in just one year. Liz Claiborne is also making more customers happy, gaining 4 percent to 82, tying Hanesbrands (up 3%) with VF following close behind, down 2 percent to 81.
Liz Claiborne seems to be getting a much needed boost from famed fashion designer, Issac Mizrahi, whose first line for the clothing maker appeared in the spring, and from lower-priced offerings in its trendy Kate Spade and Juicy Couture lines. As for Levi Strauss, “Perhaps it also benefits from a comfort factor similar to that produced by the chocolate makers,” says Fornell. “After all, Levi Strauss has been around for a long time and may well represent something familiar, trusted, and American.”
For a complete list of measured companies and scores, please visit www.theacsi.org.
The American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) is a national economic indicator of customer evaluations of the quality of products and services available to household consumers in the United States. The national index is updated each quarter. The overall ACSI score factors in the scores from more than 200 companies in 44 industries and from government agencies throughout the previous four quarters. The Index was founded at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business and is produced by ACSI LLC.
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